With Independence everyone in Scotland will be £824 better off
Saturday, 17 May 2014
Thursday, 10 October 2013
Here are the facts
As
a Civil Servant in London working on Government Finance, I always believed that
Scotland was the poor relation of the United Kingdom and could not survive
without subsidies from Westminster. It
was quite a shock when, for the first time, I was able to look at the Nation's
"books", to find that the situation was exactly the opposite and that
Scotland was a net provider for the rest of the UK. It was obvious that the Treasury wished to
keep this a secret. I decided to check
the position year by year, and found that Scotland was always in credit, unlike
the rest of the UK. Scotland, of course,
did not receive one penny of the oil and gas revenues which poured into the
Treasury's coffers.
Since
production began in the 1970s, the oil and gas industry has contributed
approximately £300 billion in tax receipts (2012/13 prices) to the UK
Exchequer, around 90% of which has been generated by production in Scottish
waters. In 2011-12 alone, oil and gas production in Scottish waters generated
£10.6 billion in tax revenues, the second highest nominal level of tax revenue
in the past 25 years. The annual tax revenues from oil and gas production in
Scotland's portion of the UKCS have averaged over £1,500 per person in Scotland
since 1980.
In
2012, oil and gas production is estimated to have contributed around £22
billion to Scottish GDP - making it the largest industrial sector in Scotland
by a large margin. Oil and gas production also boosted the UK balance of
payments by some £40 billion in 2011.
At
the end of my Civil Service career I decided to write an article showing the
position of how Scotland had been misled.
Rather naively, I thought that one of Scotland's daily newspapers would
publish my article. When this failed, I wondered who might be interested. A friend suggested that I should approach Newsnet Scotland, known to be a website supportive of Independence. I offered my article under the title "Would An Independent Scotland Be Financially Sound?” and it was published by them on their website on
1st February 2012.
The reaction was sensational with 17,000 visits in the first 48 hours (a record) and the article began appearing on other websites. Almost all the responses were supportive. Another surprise lay in store when it was picked up by the Metro Newspaper Group and published in 3.3. million copies, 1.7 million of which were distributed in London. You can also find the article on my own blog here:
http://scotlandowntwofeet.blogspot.co.uk
The reaction was sensational with 17,000 visits in the first 48 hours (a record) and the article began appearing on other websites. Almost all the responses were supportive. Another surprise lay in store when it was picked up by the Metro Newspaper Group and published in 3.3. million copies, 1.7 million of which were distributed in London. You can also find the article on my own blog here:
http://scotlandowntwofeet.blogspot.co.uk
However,
the pretence that Scotland could not survive on its own has been dispelled
somewhat by three statements, viz:
2007. David Cameron – "It would be wrong to
suggest that Scotland could not be another … successful independent
country".
2012. Alistair Darling. – "Now our case is not that Scotland
cannot survive as a separate state. Of
course it could".
2012. Lord Nigel Lawson (former Tory Chancellor) –
"Scotland is perfectly capable of being an independent nation … There are
many independent countries in the world which have a lot less going for
them".
In
2013, David Cameron again commented but in a slightly different tone –
"Scotland is perfectly capable of going its own way, but we are better
together". As the cynic might say
"Better together as long as you have all Scotland's Oil Revenues".
Where
is Mr Cameron's integrity when he can allow Scotland to be bombarded with false reports and statistics from the "No” campaign saying that we are doomed to
bankruptcy?
He
knows that "Fear" is the only weapon that the “No” campaign has, and
it is difficult to counteract false information, as the whole media – from
newspapers to radio - are in full control of the Unionist propaganda
machine. I believe that the only answer
is to keep publishing the truth and, in the end, truth will win.
How
are these negative but authentic looking reports produced? I had a clue to this late in my Civil Service
career when I was presented with an "Answer" to which I had to
"massage" the statistics to fit.
My immediate response was – "Over my dead body". This made me realise just how deceitful a UK Government could be. No doubt
they found someone else to do the dirty work, but over the years it became
apparent to me that dishonesty in the higher echelons of the Westminster
Government is rife. With the current
stream of scare stories I ask myself the question – "Are democracy and
decency dead?"
Allow
me to expose just a couple of the cruel lies that have been broadcast to scare
the people of Scotland
[1]
"Scotland with its larger number of Government jobs, would not be able to
pay pensions and other items of support within the "social protection
bill".
The
facts are that the "Social Protection Bill" for Scotland accounts for
38% of the taxes raised here, as against 42% for the UK as a whole (GERS
2011-12). This means that Scotland will be far better able to afford pensions, etc.,
when it becomes independent than the UK as a whole is now.
[2]
The “No” campaign claims that Scotland could not rely on its oil revenues to
balance its books due to big fluctuations in the oil price.
Firstly,
Scotland is already solvent without the oil, and as Scotland has approximately
only 10% of the population of the UK, the Oil Revenues for Scotland will be 10
times as valuable, making Scotland the 8th richest nation in the
world (Source: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD]
International League Table).
The
top oil men, interviewed on Radio Scotland on 20 April 2013, said that wild
fluctuation in the price of oil will not occur, and the most we will ever see
is a few pence difference at the pumps. Overall,
in time, the trend will always be upwards. [There is of course the possibility
that oil extraction could be interrupted due to instrument failure or a safety
concern. Such an occurrence could easily
be dealt with by setting up an Oil Fund – a regular sum of money being invested
each year, ready to make good any deficiency that might occur in a particular
year.]
So
where can we find the real truth about Scotland? Surprisingly, it is not difficult to find. All
we need to do is to look at the Government's own GERS financial figures for the year 2011-12, published in April 2013. [1]
Scotland
contributed 9.9% of the UK taxes, but got only 9.3% back, a surplus of £4.4 billion.
Put
simply, with independence, everyone in Scotland will be £824 better off.
[1] Please see my subsequent blog "GERS Report 2012-13" for an update on the GERS figures.
See also: More blogs by John Jappy
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